In a previous post, we emphasized that startups inherently involve many uncertainties. To advance your company and garner greater interest from investors, it’s crucial to swiftly and comprehensively address these uncertainties, often called risks.
However, the question remains: how can you effectively manage these diverse risks? How can you ascertain that your product aligns with the market’s demands? How can you persuade investors and employees of your startup’s enduring potential? And how can you demonstrate your proficiency in creating successful products for early adopters?
This post provides a non-exhaustive compilation of typical risks associated with startups, categorizes them along spectrums, and offers practical advice and guidelines for risk mitigation. The objective is to shift away from the higher risk ratings, denoted as 1’s, and progress toward the more favorable 5’s. To illustrate this, imagine convincing a friend of your ability to bake an outstanding cake. The risk spectrum in this context might appear as follows:
[1] You’ve never attempted baking a cake, but you’re confident in your ability. [2] You present a photograph of a well-crafted cake you made in the past. [4] You introduce your friend to individuals who have previously sampled your cakes and expressed their satisfaction. [5] You allow your friend to savor a freshly baked, exceptional cake you’ve just prepared.Key High-Level Concepts
Three fundamental principles can encapsulate the majority of the forthcoming risk spectrums:
Concept #1: Actions speak louder than words.
[1] You believe you can accomplish XYZ. [3] You have a track record of successfully accomplishing XYZ. [5] You are presently actively engaged in XYZ, and you are excelling at it.Concept #2: Third-party affirmation carries more weight than personal assertions.
[1] You assert that XYZ is true. [3] Numerous individuals connected to you (such as friends or fellow accelerator participants) assert that XYZ is true. [5] Numerous unrelated individuals assert that XYZ is true.Concept #3: More information enhances credibility.
[1] Your product hasn’t recorded any sales. [3] Your product has garnered 5 sales. [5] Your product has achieved a remarkable 50 sales.
Nine Examples of Risk Spectrums
Before delving into these spectrums, please note that my personal risk ratings are used as a basis. Different individuals may prioritize different proof points or assign distinct ratings to the same evidence.
1. Risk of Achieving Product/Market Fit
Objective: Demonstrate that you are creating a product that people genuinely desire.
For B2B:
[1] You believe people will want to use your product. [2] You’ve engaged with potential customers who expressed interest once the product is built. [2] You possess Letters of Intent (LOIs). [3] You’ve initiated unpaid pilot programs. [4] You’ve established paid pilot programs. [5] You’ve secured paid contracts, ideally with prepayment.For B2C:
[1] You believe people will want to use your product. [2] You have a small user base, primarily consisting of individuals connected to you (friends, family, etc.). [3] You’ve acquired some unaffiliated early users, although the economics of user acquisition aren’t favorable. [4] Your user base is steadily growing organically. [4] Your user base is rapidly expanding through cost-effective paid acquisition. [5] Your user base is increasing via referrals and word of mouth.Alternative Perspective:
[1] Engagement is minimal, and churn is substantial. [3] Engagement and churn are moderate. [5] Engagement is high, and churn is minimal.2. Risk of Product Quality
Objective: Prove your capability to construct a top-notch product.
[1] You are confident in your ability but lack prior experience in product development. [1] You intend to outsource product development. [1] Your prototype exists but is mediocre. [2] You have previously been part of teams that successfully delivered excellent products. [3] You’ve led teams in the development of great products. [4] You possess a prototype that is of good quality. [5] You have a live, fully functional product that is exceptional.3. Team Viability Risk
Objective: Demonstrate that you’ve assembled a proficient team to realize your vision.
If your product requires competence across various functional areas (e.g., engineering, sales, UX design, etc.):
[1] Your full-time team covers only 1-2 of these areas. [3] Your full-time team handles 1-2 areas, with investors and advisors filling the remaining gaps. [4] Your full-time team manages most of these areas. [5] Your full-time team encompasses all of these areas.4. Recruiting Effectiveness Risk
Objective: Prove your capacity to efficiently expand your team, a particularly critical challenge in regions with high demand for skilled engineers, such as Silicon Valley.
[1] You lack prior hiring experience. [1] Your personal demeanor may deter potential employees (e.g., you have a difficult personality). [2] You have some interviewing experience. [3] You possess prior experience in recruitment and management. [4] You have a history of forming robust teams. [4] Your current team already includes several exceptional hires. [5] Your charisma, a compelling company mission, an exceptional company culture, or similar attributes allow you to consistently recruit in-demand candidates.
5. Sales Competency Risk
Objective: Demonstrate your team’s ability to effectively sell your product.
[1] No team member possesses sales experience. [2] You have some sales experience, but it’s limited or not recent, or doesn’t align with your startup’s sales requirements. [3] Your sales efforts are successful, but sales may be significantly underpriced or extended compared to projections. [3] You have substantial experience in sales activities closely aligned with your startup’s needs. [3] You’ve constructed and led successful sales teams previously. [4] Your team comprises experienced and proficient sales members. [5] Your product sells successfully at an attractive price with reasonable sales cycles.6. Market Potential Risk
Objective: Prove that, with effective execution, your company can realize substantial revenue, potentially exceeding $1 billion.
[1] Your target market is small and shows slow growth potential. [1] You have no clear insight into the market’s size. [3] A Gartner report provides an estimate of market size. [4] You offer a credible top-down market analysis (e.g., “People spend $X annually on this issue, and we expect to capture 15% with our solution.”). [4] You present a convincing bottom-up market analysis (e.g., “We anticipate capturing 10% of users in group A and 20% of users in group B, charging them $X and $Y, respectively.”). [5] Your bottom-up analysis, substantiated by experimentation and data, reveals substantial potential users and willingness to pay. [5] Established companies in the industry demonstrate a sizable market for your offerings.7. Funding Sustainability Risk
Objective: Prove that you possess sufficient capital to reach critical milestones, secure additional funding under favorable terms (if desired), and have a contingency plan for alternative scenarios.
[1] Your business will not sustain itself for an extended period, relying on multiple rounds of venture funding. [1] Well-funded competitors exist, necessitating substantial capital for competitiveness. [2] There’s minimal leeway between when you expect to reach the next funding round and when your current cash reserves will necessitate another round. [2] You’ve successfully raised venture capital previously. [3] You have a track record of securing substantial venture capital. [3] Your current round includes respected investors who can guide you to the next round. [4] Your current round features well-funded investors who could lead future rounds if interested. [4] With effort and sacrifices, you could achieve break-even without additional capital. [5] You aren’t reliant on additional capital, as you can easily attain break-even or profitability at any time.8. Short-Term Competitive Differentiation Risk
Objective: Prove that you distinguish yourself from existing market players in the short term.
[1] The market features numerous competitors of all sizes, including established incumbents, early-stage startups, and well-funded startups, all targeting your market from multiple angles. [2] Competition is present, but they consist of ineffective legacy players or inadequately funded startups. [3] A limited number of competitors exist, with no significant differentiation between you and them. [4] Only a handful of competitors are in your space, and strong differentiation sets you apart. [5] You face no competition, and a substantial entry barrier has been surmounted.9. Long-Term Competitive Advantage Risk
Objective: Prove that you can maintain your strong position as success attracts imitators.
[1] You lack a competitive edge and aren’t a first mover. [2] You are the first mover but still lack a substantial competitive advantage. [3] You possess modest competitive advantages, such as minor patents or slightly superior unit economics compared to newcomers. [4] You maintain moderate competitive advantages, including a strong brand perception among customers, significantly improved unit economics, and a robust patent portfolio. [5] Your company boasts robust competitive advantages, like network effects or proprietary datasets that strengthen as you grow.
How to Mitigate Risk Effectively
Step 1: Begin with a candid evaluation of your company’s principal areas of risk.
Step 2: Compile strategies for transitioning from elevated risk to reduced risk along each risk spectrum. If you’re uncertain about potential actions, seek guidance from investors, advisors, or fellow founders.
Step 3: Develop comprehensive risk reduction plans for both the short term and long term within your company. These plans may encompass a range of actions, some of which may be straightforward and quick, such as conducting an AdWords test to gauge customer demand and market size. Conversely, certain actions may necessitate a substantial amount of time, like devising an elegant method to incorporate network effects into your product or identifying a suitable VP of Sales when your team lacks sales experience.
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Additional Insights
- If certain areas have minimal remaining risk, it’s prudent to shift your focus to other aspects of your venture. Converting a few ‘1’s to ‘3’s is often more valuable than elevating a ‘4.5’ to a ‘5.’
- Having reputable investors and advisors can effectively transition you from a ‘1’ to a ‘2’ or ‘3.’ For instance, if you lack expertise in hiring a VP of Marketing, an investor or advisor with this knowledge becomes a valuable asset.
- A noteworthy observation: a strong co-founder with complementary skills can propel your venture from a ‘1’ directly to a ‘4’ or ‘5,’ significantly enhancing your seed round valuation.
- A strategic corollary: carefully choose your investors and advisors. Individuals who can fill gaps in areas where your team lacks strength are more valuable than those with similar strengths.
- Seek external feedback to gain insights into your venture’s risks. Self-awareness can be challenging to attain, making honest risk assessments from trusted individuals a valuable exercise.
- Proactively address risks before they become imminent challenges. If you lack sales experience, start practicing once your product is ready. You can even commence practice pre-launch or on a personal project before formally launching your company.
- Remember that addressing risks is not just for the benefit of investors; it’s an essential process for your own success. If you’re considering dedicating years, or even decades, to a venture, it’s crucial to understand where your greatest challenges lie and how to confront them systematically.
